ż President Debates Economic Impacts of Iran War on ČT24
Jiří Schwarz, President of ż, participated in a ČT24 debate on the Economic Impact of the Iran War with Jan Švejnar, Director of the Center for Global Economic Policy at Columbia University in the City of New York. Both were in the past members of NERV (National Economic Council advising to the Czech government). The government’s budget, budget cuts to certain sectors, and the possibility of rising oil prices were principal among the debate topics.
As a former member of the National Economic Council of the Government, President Schwarz argued that we should not underestimate the situation and expect the conflict in Iran to end right away because the role of oil and diesel in production has not diminished since the last period of raw material and energy crisis between 1973 and 1975.
“It really depends on the course of the conflict, and I expect that rising oil prices will seriously begin to manifest itself in the period when the conflict lasts longer than 2–3 months,” said Schwarz.
Professor Jan Švejnar pointed out that there is some cause for concern, not because of the budget deficit as the moderator Lukáš Dolanský asked about, but because the problem is how to maintain medium-long term economic growth.
President Schwarz agreed with Švejnar, adding that the Czech Republic has the means to do this and close the deficit, but there is a lack of deeper cooperation, productive economic debates, and implementation of policy in practice. Both panelists compared the Czech Republic to Poland which has had more successful, consistent economic growth and was able to take advantage of European infrastructure funding.
“Inflation is a scarecrow, and it was that crisis more than 50 years ago that fueled inflation to the point of hyperinflation. What followed was a phenomenon that the economy had not yet been able to deal with, had not encountered, and that is stagflation as a conjunction of stagnation and inflation. It is indeed a threat, but it only threatens if the energy prices hold for a longer period of time; and it threatens because oil and energy raw materials are inputs into production of goods and services and thus are passed on to the prices of final products,” said Schwarz.
Affordable prices have long-term effects on society, Schwarz argued. Without affordable housing, for instance, there will be no marriages and no children will be born. “It is truly a priority,” he concluded.
Watch the debate in Czech in the video from ČT24 below.